Island Climate Update 172 - January 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

14 January 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 172 (PDF 315 KB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 636 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently above El Niño thresholds.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    The atmosphere has yet to show a clear coupling to the anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast January to March 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: January to March 2015

    In December 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean was still just above El Niño thresholds towards the end of the month

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past three months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data