Island Climate Update 199 - April 2017

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 199

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state, although some of the indices are indicative of La Niña conditions. International guidance is about equally split between continuing ENSO-neutral conditions (53% chance) and developing El Niño conditions (47%) during the next three months (April to June 2017). However, from late winter onwards, a transition to El Niño conditions is favoured: with a 68% chance between July to September 2017 and 62% chance between October to December 2017.

April to June 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Nauru, Kiribati (Gilbert Islands): Well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Kiribati (Phoenix and Line Islands): Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months in the Phoenix islands and 5 of the past 6 months in the Line Islands. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Tokelau: Below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.