Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 200
The tropical Pacific overall remained in an ENSO (El Niño –Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during April 2017. International guidance indicates that a transition towards El Niño conditions over the next three months period (May –July 2017) is more likely than not, (56% chance, versus 44% chance for persistence of the current ENSO-neutral state). The models indicate increasing chance for El Niño becoming established later during the Southern Hemisphere winter, with nearly 70% chance for the August to October period. Note however that ENSO forecasts made just before the start of the winter season have lower accuracy than at other times of the year, and the current spread between the models’ forecasts is significant.
May to July 2017 rainfall forecast
Regional drought potential advisory
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months
Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months for the Gilbert Islands while the forecast for Nauru is climatology.
Kiribati Phoenix Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
New Caledonia: Below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
Marshall Islands: The drought advisory is not yet indicating water stress conditions. However, a drought state of emergency is currently in place for 8 northern atolls.