Island Climate Update 187 - April 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

19 April 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 187 (PDF 961KB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 348 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño conditions weakened in March 2016.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    El Niño conditions continued in the Tropical Pacific during March 2016, but the current event has clearly entered its decaying phase.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast April to June 2016

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: April to June 2016

    The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast continuing, but progressively weakening El Niño conditions for the April – June 2016 period (80% chance).

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data