19 April 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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El Niño conditions weakened in March 2016.
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El Niño conditions are still likely (80 % chance) to be present over the coming season (April – June 2016).
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All models forecast a return to neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña by July – September 2016.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position in the eastern Pacific.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Niue, southern Vanuatu, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Tonga and northern Vanuatu.
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Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, western Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu.
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Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
