Hotspot Watch 19 February 2026

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

In the North Island, weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm were recorded for much of Wellington, the Manawatū-Whanganui east and north of Palmerston North, the Waikato from Hamilton eastward including the Coromandel, eastern Northland, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, and Gisborne, with a few pockets of 100 to 200 mm in the central North Island mainly about the ranges and foothills. Elsewhere, 10 to 30 mm of rain fell across Taranaki, western Waikato, most of Auckland, remainder of Northland, the Manawatū-Whanganui about Foxton and Palmerston North, with a few areas in Auckland and Northland recording less than 10 mm of rain.  The remainder of the North Island recorded 30 to 50 mm of rain over the past seven days. A moderate to large increase in soil moisture occurred in Wellington, most of the Manawatū-Whanganui, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Bay of Plenty, the Waikato about Taupo, and Northland about Whangarei. Soil moisture increased slightly for Taranaki and the Coromandel Peninsula. Elsewhere, soil moisture remained the same or decreased slightly for the remainder of Northland and Auckland. The driest soils, when compared to normal for the time of year, are found along the Northland coast west of Kaitaia and north to Cape Reinga, with the wettest soils, when compared to normal for the time of year, are found in Northland about Whangarei, Waikato about Tokoroa, Bay of Plenty about and south of Rotorua, Gisborne, northern Hawke’s Bay and the Central Hawke’s Bay District, the Tararua District, and the eastern Wellington region.

The hotspot about the Manawatū-Whanganui coast near Foxton remains while the hotspot in Northland about Tauroa Point to North Cape has strengthened. As of 17 February, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map shows abnormally dry to very dry conditions in the Far North of Northland.

In the South Island, weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm were recorded about Christchurch and Bank’s Peninsula, in North Canterbury about Kaikōura and Cheviot, and in the Southern Alps of Westland, with a few pockets of 100 to 150 mm of rain about Bank’s Peninsula. Elsewhere, 30 to 50 mm of rain were recorded across Otago from Dunedin south to Balclutha, in Canterbury mainly about the high country, about Lincoln, and pockets of North Canterbury mainly along the foothills, Fiordland, and much of Westland south of Greymouth. The remainder of the South Island recorded less than 30 mm of rain, with portions of Southland, Stewart Island, inland Otago, Marlborough, and southern Tasman recording less than 10 mm over the past seven days. A moderate to large soil moisture increase occurred across coastal Otago, the Canterbury low country including Christchurch and Bank’s Peninsula, and Stewart Island. Soil moisture remained the same or decreased slightly across the remainder of the South Island. The driest soils in the South Island, when compared to normal for the time of year, are in Southland west of Invercargill and Westland about Hokitika. The wettest soils, when compared to normal for the time of year, are in North Canterbury about Kaikōura and Bank’s Peninsula.

A hotspot has formed in Southland just west of Invercargill. As of 17 February, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map shows a very small area of abnormally dry conditions in Central Otago.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

The week ahead:

In the North Island, high pressure will be on top of or near the North Island through the next seven days. A west-southwest wind flow will bring occasional showers under otherwise dry weather conditions Friday through Sunday, with little to no rain expected by Monday (23 February). A weak front moves across the North Island on Tuesday with a few showers, mainly for the lower North Island. For Wednesday and Thursday (25-26 February) sea breezes will dominate, allowing for a few inland showers. Weekly rainfall totals of 10 to 30 mm are expected for all of the North Island, with some locations about the north and east of the North Island expecting less than 10 mm of rain.

Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels will likely see moderate to large decreases. The hotspots in the Manawatū-Whanganui and Northland will likely strengthen over the next week.

In the South Island, a front moves across on Friday with rain and showers, along with a few thunderstorms along the east of the South Island, and a cool southwest wind flow. A short period of high pressure is expected overnight Friday, followed by another front with more rain on Saturday night and Sunday (21-22 February), with the heaviest rain in Fiordland. High pressure follows late Sunday to early Monday, with another period of possible heavy rainfall for the west and south of the South Island on Monday and early Tuesday. Settled weather returns for Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday, with another front with rain for the west and south of the South Island on Thursday (26 February). Weekly rainfall totals of 30 to 50 mm of rain are forecast for the west and south of Southland and Westland from Westport south to Haast, with 50 to 100 mm of rain expected for lower Westland, the Southern Alps, and Fiordland. For the remainder of the South Island, expect 10 to 30 mm of rain over the next week.

Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels will likely see a small to moderate increase across Fiordland. Otherwise, expect soil moisture to remain the same or decrease slightly for the remainder of the South Island. The hotspot in Southland will likely remain the same or weaken over the next week and a hotspot may form in Otago over the next seven day period.

Long-term outlook (through late-March):

• In the drier (25^th percentile) scenario, drier than normal conditions are signalled for the entire country, with very dry conditions for the south, central, and west of the North Island, and large portions of the South Island.
• The middle (50^th percentile) scenario shows dry conditions for all of the South Island, including a very dry signal for parts of Otago and Mackenzie Country, and dry conditions for the west and south of the North Island, with near normal conditions elsewhere across New Zealand.
• In the wetter (75^th percentile) scenario, wetter than normal conditions are signalled for the north and east of the North Island, with potential for very wet conditions in Northland, a dry signal for the inland South Island, and near normal conditions elsewhere.

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook

Background:

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are "severely drier than normal" which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.