National-scale climate change projections
The development of updated national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand was completed in mid 2024. Read more about the project here.
The data is available from the Ministry for the Environment (MfE), along with a map-based geospatial tool to display the climate projections data and insights into the data.
Regional variation in climate change impacts across New Zealand
The impacts of climate change will vary across different parts of New Zealand. For example, the west coast of the South Island is projected to experience more rainfall than at present, while the east of the South Island is projected to experience reductions in rainfall. Similar variations are expected for other aspects of climate – such as average temperatures, hot days, frost days, humidity and wind.For this reason, regional-scale climate change projections can be more useful for New Zealand's local and regional councils. Regional-scale projections can help with assessing local risks from a changing climate and preparing communities for future impacts.
Regional-scale climate change projections
NIWA has provided regional-scale high resolution (5 km x 5 km) maps and detailed reports to a number of New Zealand local government bodies (regional, district, and city councils).
These maps show projections for a large range of climate variables at 2040 and 2090 and for two different climate change scenarios (based on the trajectory of greenhouse gas concentrations in the future).
Along with descriptions of the projected future changes to different climate variables, these reports have been tailored to each region following discussions about sectors of concern. These may include impacts of climate change on aspects including biodiversity, biosecurity, river flows, aquaculture, agriculture, storm surges and groundwater, among others. Climate variables that were mapped include temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, soil moisture, and solar radiation. Indices and threshold information has also been produced (e.g. changes to the numbers of ‘hot days’ or days above 25 degrees per year). GIS layers of the climate projections have also been provided so that the councils may use them in their planning and decision making processes.
Note that these reports were prepared using the previous set of climate projections, based on the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. Updates to some of these reports, using the most recent projections, are currently underway and will be updated here once available.
Find out more here about how NIWA can help you leverage the updated climate projections.
Find out more
You can read more about climate change scenarios under the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report and NIWA’s work in developing national-scale climate change projections.
Links to NIWA reports for local government (listed alphabetically)
Auckland Council
Bay of Plenty Regional Council
Environment Canterbury
Environment Southland, Gore District Council, Invercargill City Council, and Southland District Council
Greater Wellington Regional Council
- Summary report (2017)
- Full technical report (2017)
- Climate change extremes report (2019)
- Wairarapa climate change projections report (2021) and video