Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Baseline tables

Issues

The tropical Pacific continued to exhibit an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during May 2017, although is now close to the threshold of a weak El Niño. 

The tropical Pacific overall remained in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state  (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during April 2017. The strong ‘coastal El Niño’ which developed along the coast of South America (southern Ecuador and northern Peru) during February and March has now weakened.

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state overall, but with very mixed signals.

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).
The tropical Pacific continues to exhibit mainly ENSO-neutral conditions.
The tropical Pacific exhibits mainly neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean are marginally below average and do not exceed the threshold used by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center to define La Niña events.
The tropical Pacific exhibits mixed ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signals, with some indicating La Niña status and others indicating neutral conditions.
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean as a whole, although some indicators are currently in the weak La Niña category.
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific Ocean during August: sea surface temperatures along the eastern equatorial Pacific are near or slightly below normal, and the atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with an ENSO-neutral state.
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific.
The latest remnants of the strong El Niño which peaked late in 2015 have now vanished in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Pacific is ENSO-neutral.
Ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific have now returned to near normal after a rapid demise of the El Niño event that peaked late 2015.
El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific weakened further during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures now typically only about +1oC warmer than normal.
Strong El Niño conditions continued to dominate the tropical Pacific during December 2015.
Strong El Niño conditions continue in the Tropical Pacific.
Atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reflect strong El Niño conditions.
Strong El Niño conditions were established across the Equatorial Pacific during September 2015.
Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific ocean.
El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during July 2015.
An El Niño event is under way in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across many areas of the eastern and central Tropical Pacific.

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