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Seasonal Climate Outlook

Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

Background and related information:

Issues

The atmospheric imprint of La Niña continues to be strong; the Southern Oscillation Index during April is tracking to become the 3rd-highest April value on record since at least 1876.
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the north and west of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average elsewhere.
March is expected to feature spells of higher than normal pressure in Aotearoa New Zealand, especially during the first half of the month, with drier than normal conditions favoured in the North Island in particular.
La Niña conditions peaked in the equatorial Pacific during January, with a 75% chance for its continuation during the next three months.
La Niña conditions strengthened in the equatorial Pacific during December. It is expected to continue to be a key climate driver for Aotearoa New Zealand over the next three months, with an 80% chance for its continuation.
Summer temperatures are very likely to be above average across the country. Warm overnight temperatures and extended periods of high humidity are likely.
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across Aotearoa New Zealand with a period of particularly warm conditions from around the second week of November.
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across New Zealand. More northeasterly winds are expected to cause periods of warmth and humidity, such as in early October.
Spring rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the east of the North Island, near normal in the west of the South Island, and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all remaining regions across Aotearoa New Zealand.
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in all regions of the country. More northwesterly air flows will likely cause spells of unseasonably warm temperatures in the north and east of both islands in particular.
NZ’s weather patterns are expected to feature substantial week-to-week variability over the coming months, owing to an ENSO neutral state in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the west and east of the South Island and about equally likely to be above average or near average in all other regions. While cold spells and frosts will occur, as is typical during winter, they may be infrequent.
Temperatures are very unlikely to be colder than average for the three months as a whole. Above average or near average temperatures are favoured for all regions except the east of the South Island, where above average temperatures are most likely.
For April-June, air pressure is expected to be lower than normal to the northwest and higher than normal to the east of the country. Although air flows will be mixed, slightly more easterly quarter winds are favoured for the three month period as a whole.
During autumn, New Zealand’s climate patterns are expected to become more variable as the impact from a non-traditional central Pacific La Niña starts to ease.
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average in all other regions.
Sub-tropical air flows may fuel areas of localised, heavy rainfall that can cause flooding, similar to what was in experienced in parts of the country during late December and early January.
Consistent with moderate La Niña conditions, December 2020 – February 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast of the South Island and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies.
November 2020 – January 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies, a signature of La Niña.
Air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal to the southeast and lower than normal to the north of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with developing La Niña-like northeasterly air flow anomalies, although a westerly flow anomaly, which may be strong at times, is favoured to continue for much of October.
September – November 2020 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal to the east and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with La Niña-like northeasterly air flow anomalies.
During periods of northeasterly winds, the threat for sub-tropical low pressure systems capable of producing heavy rainfall, similar to those experienced in late June and mid-July, is elevated, particularly in the north and east of the North Island.
Rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island, about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal in all other regions.
Oceanic ENSO-neutral conditions will very likely persist over the next three months. The long-standing climate drivers that have contributed to dryness over much of NZ are expected to influence our weather for at least the first half of the winter season.

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