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Seasonal Climate Outlook

Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

Background and related information:

Issues

Seasonal climate outlook January - March 2018

New Zealand’s regional climate over the next three month period is anticipated to be dominated by the very warm ocean waters present around the country and in the Tasman sea, which will influence surface air temperatures and the likelihood of significant rainfall events.

Seasonal climate outlook December 2017 - February 2018

La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific, as several conventional thresholds have been reached or are being approached.

Seasonal climate outlook November 2017 - January 2018

The tropical Pacific is still officially in a ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) neutral state, but some indicators have leaned more towards La Niña conditions during the course of October 2017.

Seasonal climate outlook October 2017 - December 2017

Many atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific are on the La Niña side of neutral, although not yet strong enough to reach La Niña thresholds.

Seasonal climate outlook: September 2017 - November 2017

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions were still present in the tropical Pacific during August 2017. However, like July, several oceanic and atmospheric patterns, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, leaned toward La Niña.

Seasonal climate outlook: August 2017 - October 2017

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continued in the tropical Pacific during July 2017, but this month mixed signals were again present. In particular some atmospheric patterns have been recently leaning more towards weak La Niña conditions.

Seasonal climate outlook: July 2017 - September 2017

The tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during June 2017, but oceanic and atmospheric anomalies were mixed, with some indicators leaning towards El Niño and others towards La Niña.

Seasonal climate outlook: June 2017 - August 2017

The tropical Pacific continued to exhibit an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during May 2017, although is now close to the threshold of a weak El Niño. 

Seasonal climate outlook: May 2017 - July 2017

The tropical Pacific overall remained in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state  (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during April 2017. The strong ‘coastal El Niño’ which developed along the coast of South America (southern Ecuador and northern Peru) during February and March has now weakened.

Seasonal climate outlook: April 2017 - June 2017

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state overall, but with very mixed signals.

Seasonal climate outlook: March 2017 - May 2017

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Seasonal climate outlook: February 2017 - April 2017

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Seasonal climate outlook: January 2017 - March 2017

The tropical Pacific continues to exhibit mainly ENSO-neutral conditions.

Seasonal climate outlook: December 2016 - February 2017

The tropical Pacific exhibits mainly neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean are marginally below average and do not exceed the threshold used by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center to define La Niña events.

Seasonal climate outlook: November 2016 - January 2017

The tropical Pacific exhibits mixed ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signals, with some indicating La Niña status and others indicating neutral conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2016

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean as a whole, although some indicators are currently in the weak La Niña category.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2016

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific Ocean during August: sea surface temperatures along the eastern equatorial Pacific are near or slightly below normal, and the atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with an ENSO-neutral state.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2016

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2016

The latest remnants of the strong El Niño which peaked late in 2015 have now vanished in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Pacific is ENSO-neutral.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2016

Ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific have now returned to near normal after a rapid demise of the El Niño event that peaked late 2015.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2016

El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific weakened further during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures now typically only about +1oC warmer than normal.

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