NIWA

Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

Issues

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2015

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific intensified significantly around the international Dateline during March 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained steady during December 2014 at above conventional El Niño thresholds.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2014 -February 2015

In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2014 - January 2015

At the end of October 2014, atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Niño thresholds.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2014

During September 2014, borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of August 2014.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to remain ENSO-neutral at the end of July 2014, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions failing to sufficiently couple to initiate an El Niño event

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2014

While above normal sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific Ocean have crossed El Niño thresholds in June 2014, most atmospheric indicators (e.g. sea level pressure, convection, trade winds) have remained at neutral levels, indicating that El Niño conditions have not yet become fully established.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2014

During June–August 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the northeast of New Zealand, and weak lower than normal pressures are expected over the country.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2014

May–July temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be average for the west of the South Island, above average (50% chance) for the east of the North Island, and average or above average (40-45%) for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as autumn advances into winter.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in March 2014. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the next three months (April – June 2014).

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2014

During March–May 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north of the country, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zealand.