Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Related information

Issues

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2016

The latest remnants of the strong El Niño which peaked late in 2015 have now vanished in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Pacific is ENSO-neutral.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2016

Ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific have now returned to near normal after a rapid demise of the El Niño event that peaked late 2015.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2016

El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific weakened further during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures now typically only about +1oC warmer than normal.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2016

Strong El Niño conditions continued to dominate the tropical Pacific during December 2015.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2015 - February 2016

Strong El Niño conditions continue in the Tropical Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2015 - January 2016

Atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reflect strong El Niño conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October – December 2015

Strong El Niño conditions were established across the Equatorial Pacific during September 2015.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2015

Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific ocean.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2015

El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during July 2015.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2015

An El Niño event is under way in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across many areas of the eastern and central Tropical Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2015

An El Niño event is now under way in the tropical Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2015

Warming of the sea surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in April 2015, building upon the warmer than normal waters observed in previous months.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2015

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific intensified significantly around the international Dateline during March 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained steady during December 2014 at above conventional El Niño thresholds.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2014 -February 2015

In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2014 - January 2015

At the end of October 2014, atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Niño thresholds.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2014

During September 2014, borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of August 2014.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to remain ENSO-neutral at the end of July 2014, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions failing to sufficiently couple to initiate an El Niño event

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