Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Related information


The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in November 2013.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Near or above average temperatures are expected to continue across the country for the coming three months.

After a very warm winter, the coming spring is likely to have near or above average temperatures across the country.
A warm early spring on the cards
Mild conditions likely to continue over late winter.
Mild early winter on the cards.
Mild conditions for late autumn.
Return to near normal over the coming season.
Wetter in west and drier in east likely to continue.
Normal to dry summer for the north & east of North Island.
Normal to dry early summer for North Island, Nelson and Marlborough.
Borderline or weak El Niño forecast for late spring
Weak El Niño forecast for spring and summer.
Drier late winter likely for some.
Drier winter likely for some.
La Niña over, and a mild start to winter for New Zealand.
La Niña ending, but easterly circulation regime to persist.
La Niña gone by Easter; somewhat stormy Tasman Sea.
La Niña set to fade with a near-normal lead-in to autumn.
La Niña through late summer: continuing wet in north and dry in south.