Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Baseline tables

Issues

Normal to dry summer for the north & east of North Island.
Normal to dry early summer for North Island, Nelson and Marlborough.
Borderline or weak El Niño forecast for late spring
Weak El Niño forecast for spring and summer.
Drier late winter likely for some.
Drier winter likely for some.
La Niña over, and a mild start to winter for New Zealand.
La Niña ending, but easterly circulation regime to persist.
La Niña gone by Easter; somewhat stormy Tasman Sea.
La Niña set to fade with a near-normal lead-in to autumn.
La Niña through late summer: continuing wet in north and dry in south.
La Niña back but a typical summer likely.
Dry conditions likely as La Niña returns.
Mild conditions with near average rainfall likely in most places.
Mild conditions likely to continue through late winter.
La Niña gone, but a mild winter still likely.
A mild early winter shaping up for many regions; La Niña bowing out.
Mild conditions continuing into late autumn as La Niña weakens.
A mild autumn with La Niña easing.
Warmer than normal conditions likely to continue into autumn.

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