Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Baseline tables

Issues

La Niña locked in – a warm early summer likely.
La Niña intensifies; warm late spring period very likely.
A mild La Niña spring on the way.
La Niña conditions for the rest of 2010.
La Niña on the way - mild conditions likely.
Mild conditions likely to continue through winter.
A mild start to winter, and the end of the El Niño.
El Niño to exit by the end of autumn.
A cool end to summer, and continuing drier than normal in the north.
Late summer – more of the same.
El Niño strengthens, with conditions likely to be cooler in south and drier in northeast.
Moderate El Niño conditions, but muted influence on New Zealand in the coming season.
Weak El Niño not likely to greatly influence New Zealand rainfall in the coming season.
A windy spring ahead with drier than normal conditions in many regions.
Typical of early spring right across New Zealand.
A wet end to winter, with near average temperatures in most regions.
La Niña over, with a near-normal winter on the way.

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