Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch these videos with Chris Brandolino (Principal Scientist - Forecasting) explaining how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

The following documents also provide more background information on the outlooks:

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Baseline tables


Dry conditions likely as La Niña returns.
Mild conditions with near average rainfall likely in most places.
Mild conditions likely to continue through late winter.
La Niña gone, but a mild winter still likely.
A mild early winter shaping up for many regions; La Niña bowing out.
Mild conditions continuing into late autumn as La Niña weakens.
A mild autumn with La Niña easing.
Warmer than normal conditions likely to continue into autumn.
La Niña locked in – a warm early summer likely.
La Niña intensifies; warm late spring period very likely.
A mild La Niña spring on the way.
La Niña conditions for the rest of 2010.
La Niña on the way - mild conditions likely.
Mild conditions likely to continue through winter.
A mild start to winter, and the end of the El Niño.
El Niño to exit by the end of autumn.
A cool end to summer, and continuing drier than normal in the north.
Late summer – more of the same.
El Niño strengthens, with conditions likely to be cooler in south and drier in northeast.
Moderate El Niño conditions, but muted influence on New Zealand in the coming season.