Island Climate Update 26 - November 2002

Higher risk of Tropical Cyclones for South Pacific countries east of the Date Line
By Dr Jim Salinger, Dr Jim Renwick and Stuart Burgess
For some South Pacific countries east of the date line the chances of tropical cyclone activity are higher than normal for the November 2002 – January 2003 period.
The last few tropical cyclone seasons were relatively ‘quiet’, with only six occurrences during 2000/01 and five in 2001/02.

Forecast validation
Forecast period: August to October 2002
The influence of the El Niño was expected to have a significant influence on rainfall anomalies, with more convergence and a tendency towards above average rainfall projected for Kiribati and Tuvalu, and average to below average rainfall from the Coral Sea to New Caledonia.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
Moderate El Niño expected to last through Summer
Much of the equatorial Pacific remains warmer than normal
Central Pacific SST anomalies intensified further during October, with some areas around Eatern Kiribati more than 2.0°C above average.

Enhanced convection over much of the western and central Pacific
Well below average rainfall from Australia across to central French Polynesia
The SPCZ was near its average location about and west of the dateline, with enhanced convection between the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. This region merged with the ENSO related area of enhanced convection situated over Kiribati in the central equatorial Pacific. Episodes of equatorial westerlies, enhancing the ENSO linked convection over Kiribati, were not as frequent as in the past few months.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 26 – 7 November 2002
October’s Climate: The El Niño is continuing to affect southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and well above average rainfall over much of Kiribati, but contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall from Australia across to central French Polynesia.

Rainfall outlook for November 2002 to January 2003
Enhanced convection and above average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati
Rainfall trending towards below average in many countries from Papua New Guinea across to the Austral Islands, especially New Caledonia to Niue
The El Niño-related regions of enhanced convection should persist affecting Western and Eastern Kiribati during the November 2002 to January 2003 period, resulting in continued above average rainfall in that region, with above average or average rainfall likely in Wallis & Futuna, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
Below averag

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi