Island Climate Update 191 - August 2016

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 191

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently near neutral. Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific close to or slightly below normal in the east and slightly above normal in the west. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is slightly positive (+0.5 for July 2016).

International guidance indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to appear (50% chance) over the next three month period (August to October 2016). The likelihood of La Niña conditions becoming established in the Pacific increases slightly later on, and reaches 55% in November 2016 - January 2017, however model forecasts suggest that if La Niña indeed develops, it is likely to remain in the weak or moderate category.

Rainfall outlook table for August – October 2016

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months Niue: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months.Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months. Federated States of Micronesia, Vanuatu North: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months. Fiji, Vanuatu South, New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months for Fiji and Vanuatu South. Near normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia.