Island Climate Update 90 - March 2008

Correlation of ENSO (illustrated by the SOI) variations to skipjack tuna catch rate (metric tonnes per day) and catch location indicates displacements in tuna populations are related to the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool movements.
Climate change impacts on Pacific tuna fisheries
Dr. Andrew Lorrey, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
Climate change will likely affect Pacific Ocean fisheries through raising ocean surface temperatures and through increased inter-annual climate variability.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 90 – March 2008
February’s climate
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from northeast of Australia towards New Caledonia and northeast of New Zealand, displaced well southwest of normal
Suppressed convection exists from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and about the Equator with low rainfall, especially near Nauru
Below normal rainfall for several stations in Samoa, but very hi

Climate developments in February 2008
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for February 2008. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from northeastern Australia, over Vanuatu and New Caledonia, eastward of Tonga and northeast of New Zealand, with an overall displaced position much further south and west than normal for February.

Tropical rainfall outlook: March to May 2008
Rainfall outlook map for March to May 2008. (Click for enlargement)
La Niña conditions are still very likely to influence rainfall patterns during this period, with a large area of suppressed convection very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the Society Islands, Tuamotu, and the Marquesas Islands.

Tropical Pacific rainfall - February 2008
Territory and station name
February 2008 rainfall
total (mm)
February 2008 percent
of average
Australia
Cairns Airport
535.6
117
Townsville Airport
560.4
192
Brisbane Airport
216.8
126
Sydney Airport
258.4
244
Cook Islands
Penrhyn
99.4
29
Aitutaki
124.6
-
Rarotonga Airport
276.6
137
Rarotonga EWS
203.2
101
Fiji
Rotuma
163.9
51
Udu Point
190.5
77
Nadi Airport
528.6
181
Nausori
185.4
69
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona
26.6
17
Bora Bora
123.2
52
Tahiti – Faa’a
55.6
26
Tuamotu, Takaro

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi