Island Climate Update 167 - August 2014

The atmosphere has yet to respond to the ocean in order to initiate an El Niño event.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of July 2014, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions failing to sufficiently couple and thereby initiate an El Niño event.

For August – October 2014, the South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to sit close to normal for the time of year. The models indicate a well-defined SPCZ to the west of the International Dateline.

The dynamical forecast models continue to predict drier than normal conditions in large regions of the Pacific south of the Equator for August – October 2014.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data