Island Climate Update 66 - March 2006

Lessons learned from the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC): building a climate information system in the Pacific
Eileen L.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 66 – March 2006
February’s climate
Active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extending from north of the Solomon Islands southeast towards the Southern Cook Islands
Strongly suppressed convection over Queensland, extending east towards Vanuatu
Very high rainfall in parts of Samoa and northern Tonga
Warmer than average throughout much of French Polynesia
Four tropical cyclones for the s

Climate developments in February 2006
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for February 2006. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The SPCZ was rather active, extending from the region north of the Solomon Islands southeast towards the Southern Cook Islands, resulting in enhanced convection and/or above average rainfall over parts of Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, northern Fiji, northern Tonga, Samoa, and the Southern Cook Islands.

Tropical rainfall outlook: March to May 2006.
Rainfall outlook map for March to May 2006. (Click for enlargement)
Suppressed convection is expected in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati, where rainfall is expected to be below average.
Near or below average rainfall is likely in Tuvalu, east to the Marquesas and Tuamotu Islands including Tokelau and the Northern Cook Islands.
Regions of near or above average rainfall expected from Fiji east-southeast to Pitcairn Island including, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands.

Tropical cyclone update
There have been four tropical cyclones to date. The most recent was tropical cyclone 'Kate', with sustained wind speeds of 90 km/h. 'Kate' was fairly localised, occurring over the Coral Sea south of Papua New Guinea from 24 to 25 February.
There are on average two to three tropical cyclone occurrences in March.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi