Weak La Niña conditions currently remain in place in the tropical Pacific, but a return to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next 1-3 months. There is about an 80% chance that La Niña will dissipate to ENSO-neutral during February-April, with a 90% chance for ENSO-neutral during March-May.
As of 12 January 2026, the 30-day NINO3.4 Index (in the central equatorial Pacific) was -0.70˚C, near the La Niña range. The 30-day relative Niño 3.4 Index (RONI) was -1.04˚C, in the La Niña range and reflective of the central equatorial Pacific being cooler than the average of the
global tropics.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was on the La Niña side of the neutral range during October-December (+0.7), while the December value was -0.2 (Neutral).
Subsurface ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain above average in the western part of the basin with cooler than average temperatures in eastern areas. However, the above average temperatures in the western part of the basin have started rapidly moving into the central Pacific.
Cooler than average temperatures are currently located in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to depths of about 50 metres. However, warmer than average temperatures below 50-100 metres are rapidly progressing into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signalling that La Niña is likely nearing its end.
During February-April, model guidance favours an enhancement in convective forcing over Micronesia, collocated with the warmest sea surface temperatures. This may lead to enhanced rainfall for island groups such as Palau, Guam, the Northern Marianas, Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands.
Conversely, drier than normal conditions are likely to occur for most island groups near the equator, including Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands, and northern French Polynesia (see pages 6-7 for more information).
Tropical cyclone season in the southwest Pacific continues through April, and there are indications that one or more tropical cyclones may form over the next couple of weeks.
