Island Climate Update 48 - September 2004

Pacific Dialogue on Water and Climate - Dr Marc Overmars, SOPAC
Island Vulnerability
The vulnerability of Small Island Countries has received increasing attention since the Barbados Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States in 1994.
The particular vulnerability of islands is often described in terms of their remoteness, small size and exposure to climatic instability.

Forecast validation
Forecast period: June to August 2004
Enhanced convection with above average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, with average or above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati. Another region of average or above average rainfall was forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society and Tuamotu Islands, with above average rainfall in the Austral Islands.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is in a weak El Niño state, however the ocean and the atmosphere are yet to be fully coupled. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has become more negative over the past month, with a 3-month (July-August) mean reaching -1.1, the first time it has been that low since the spring of 2002.

Climate developments in August 2004
The SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region south of the Cook Islands. This included the main islands of Fiji, central and southern Tonga where rainfall was 200-400% above average.

Tropical rainfall outlook: September to November 2004
Continuing variability in the equatorial Pacific is expected to influence the Pacific rainfall for the coming three months. Even though this El Niño event is expected to be weak, the climate impacts will vary and can be extreme for some island countries.
Rainfall is expected to be above average in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 48 – September 2004
August’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region south of the Cook Islands; very high rainfall occurred throughout much of Fiji and Tonga. Suppressed convection occurred over Papua New Guinea with continued low rainfall in parts of Queensland, Australia. Intermittent equatorial westerly wind bursts occurred.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi