Island Climate Update 196 - January 2017

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 196

The tropical Pacific continues to exhibit mainly ENSO-neutral conditions. International guidance now strongly favours ENSO-neutral conditions (77% chance) over the next three month period (January – March 2017). Thus, any La Niña-like conditions observed in the ocean or atmosphere during recent months are likely to have peaked and will subside toward a neutral state during the next 3 months. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue (78% chance) during April – June 2017.

January to March 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and Nauru and 5 of the past 6 months in the Line Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months. Tokelau: Below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months. New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.