Island Climate Update

A monthly summary of the climate in the tropical South Pacific islands, with an outlook for the coming months. This bulletin is a multi-national project with collaboration from a number of Pacific nations and support from various organisations.

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During June, the NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central Pacific) was 0.12˚C. Upper oceanic heat content decreased notably across the east central equatorial Pacific. Anomalies were below average east of the International Dateline, suggestive of an ocean system that is moving towards La Niña. 

In the subsurface ocean, cooler than average conditions pushed eastward during June with widespread anomalies of 0.5˚C to 2.0˚C. Warmth increased slightly at depth in the western Pacific. At this stage, the anomalies are consistent with developing oceanic La Niña conditions. 

Rainfall and convection was below normal across the equatorial Pacific during June, consistent with the cooling trend in the ocean. 

Trade winds during June were stronger than normal in the east central Pacific. This is expected to continue over the next 1 3 months and could lead to more cooling in the eastern and/or central Pacific. 

According to the consensus from international models, ENSO neutral and La Nina conditions are about equally likely (51% and 47% chance, respectively) for the July September period. For the October December and January March 2021 periods respectively, the probability for ENSO neutral conditions is 42% and 53%. The probability for La Niña is 45% during October December and 34% in January March. 

Based on the observations and forecast guidance, a La Niña watch is in place as of June 2020.

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Issues

July

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

June

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

May

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

April

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

March

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

February

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

January

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

December

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

November

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

October

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

September

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

August

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

July

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

June

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

May

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

April

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

March

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

February

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

January

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

December

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

November

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

October

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

September

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

August

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Feature article

Data sources

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