04 December 2012
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Tropical Pacific Ocean is still warmer than normal along the Equator, and atmospheric circulation is close to normal.
- It is unlikely that El Niño will develop during the 2012 – 2013 summer season. The forecast is for neutral conditions to persist through the first quarter of 2013.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to be slightly south of its climatological position for most of the southwest Pacific to the east of the Dateline.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Eastern Kiribati, Tonga, the Marquesas and New Caledonia.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Western Kiribati, Niue, Fiji, the Society Islands, the Solomon Islands and Tokelau.
- Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be warmer than normal especially around and west of the Dateline, and show a weak El Niño – like pattern.
