Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

• The Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
• Sea surface temperatures continue to be higher than normal in the central south Pacific.
• The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are very likely (93 % chance) to persist for the coming three months (November 2013 to January 2014). 

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is forecast to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, Pitcairn Island, Tuvalu, Eastern Kiribati, the Marquesas and the Tuamotu archipelago.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Papua New Guinea and Tonga.
• Near or above average SST is forecast for Fiji, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, Tonga and Wallis and Futuna.