Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The Pacific Ocean is still slightly warmer in parts of the tropics, and regional atmospheric circulation is close to normal.
• It is unlikely that El Niño will develop during the remainder of the summer season. Neutral ENSO conditions are forecast through early autumn 2013.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to be close to its climatological position for most of the southwest Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas.Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Niue, Tokelau and the Northern Cook Islands.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast to be close to normal for most islands, except near the Coral Sea where normal or above normal SSTs are forecast.