El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The Tropical Pacific Ocean continues to edge towards El Niño, but the atmospheric circulation has yet to show anomaly patterns typical of El Niño. 
  • International consensus is that a weak, and probably short-lived, El Niño will form during the September to November season.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone

  • The South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to sit slightly south of its climatological position in the western Pacific and north in the eastern Pacific, with the greatest uncertainty east of the Dateline.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Samoa, the Austral Islands and Wallis & Futuna.
  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia.
  • Normal rainfall is forecast elsewhere, with no clear guidance given for Niue, the Solomon Islands, the Southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands.
  • Sea surface temperatures are still expected to be warmer than normal along the Equator east of the Dateline.