14 January 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than normal in the central south Pacific and the equatorial western Pacific.
- International guidance indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are extremely likely (96 % chance) to persist for the coming three months (December 2013 to February 2014).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas and Eastern Kiribati, and normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Tuamotu Archipelago and Western Kiribati.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, Fiji, Niue, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and the Federated States of Micronesia.
- Near normal SSTs are forecast for most Island groups. No guidance is provided for Eastern Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia, Pitcairn Island, the Solomon Islands and the Tuamotu Archipelago.
NIWA
