14 January 2014
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
The forecast indicates the SPCZ will be positioned close to its normal location for the coming three months.
The models indicate intense convection may occur close to the Bismarck Archipelago and over the Solomon Islands.
Confidence in the forecast is generally lower east of the International Dateline.
