El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean are currently on the brink of El Niño, however the atmosphere has not caught up yet with the ocean, and circulation patterns are atypical of El Niño.
  • A large majority of the models indicate that El Niño thresholds in both the atmosphere and the ocean will be exceeded over the forecast period. 

The South Pacific Convergence Zone

  • The South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to sit slightly south of its climatological position, with the greatest uncertainty east of the Dateline.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Samoa, the Society Islands, the Tuamotu archipelago and Wallis & Futuna.
  • Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tonga, and Pitcairn Island.
  • Sea surface temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal along the Equator east of the Dateline. 

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