El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The ocean - atmosphere system remains in a neutral ENSO state.
  • The eastern Pacific is currently slightly cooler than normal.
  • The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist for the coming three months (September to November 2013).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is forecast to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands and the Marquesas.
  • Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and the Solomon Islands.
  • Near or above average SST is forecast for Fiji and Tonga. 
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