El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The Tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly cooler than normal along the Equator to the east of the Dateline, and warmer than normal in the Western Pacific Warm Pool.
  • Atmospheric circulation is close to normal for this time of year, and neutral ENSO conditions exist at present.
  • The international consensus is for neutral ENSO conditions to persist throughout the Southern Hemisphere autumn.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to be slightly south of normal for most of the southwest Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts 

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands.
  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast the Tuamotu archipelago, Tuvalu, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati and Tokelau.
  • Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, Pitcairn Island and Tonga.
  • Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for Eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.