Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

Related information:

Subscribe to our newsletter

Explore our Drought Forecasting Dashboard below, request data via a web form or pop out to full screen

File attachments

Issues

  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2024

    El Niño, which was active since September 2023, has ended and given way to ENSO neutral conditions, which are expected to last through winter.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook May - July 2024

    El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by the end of May.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook April - June 2024

    El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by June.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook March - May 2024

    El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by the end of autumn. The autumn season is favoured to have more northwesterly winds than normal around Aotearoa/New Zealand.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook February - April 2024

    El Niño continued during January and has around a 100% chance of persisting through April.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook January - March 2024

    El Niño continued during December and has around a 100% chance of persisting through to March 2024.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook for December 2023 - February 2024

    El Niño continued during November and has around a 100% chance of persisting through summer and an 85% chance of persisting through autumn. Although it will have an important influence on Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate, unusual ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific and on a global scale has contributed to circulation patterns that are not typically associated with a traditional El Niño.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook for November 2023 - January 2024

    El Niño continued during October and will likely intensify over the next three months. It has around a 100% chance of persisting during this time. There’s an 80% chance of El Niño continuing through autumn, maintaining an important influence on Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2023

    El Niño has officially arrived. A majority of NIWA’s criteria for classifying an El Niño event were satisfied during September. In particular, the Southern Oscillation Index was firmly in El Niño territory, suggesting the atmosphere has become coupled to the ocean.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook August - October 2023

    El Niño Alert criteria continued to be met during July. Central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceeded El Niño thresholds but the Southern Oscillation Index (an atmospheric indicator) was neutral. Full ocean-atmosphere coupling for El Niño is expected in the next three months, likely persisting through summer.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2023

    El Niño Alert criteria was reached during June. Central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceeded El Niño thresholds, but the Southern Oscillation Index (an atmospheric indicator) was neutral. The ocean-atmosphere system is expected to progress toward El Niño conditions from late winter into spring.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2023

    ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during May, but oceanic and atmospheric indicators trended closer to El Niño thresholds. El Niño will continue to develop during winter with the potential for a strong event developing by spring.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook May - July 2023

    ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in April however seas continue to warm across the equatorial Pacific consistent with a developing El Niño. El Niño conditions may arrive during winter.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook April - June 2023

    La Niña ended during March, concluding its three-year run. A dramatic change in tropical trade winds resulted in warming seas across the equatorial Pacific. As of late March, ENSO-neutral conditions were occurring, but El Niño conditions may arrive as early as winter. An El Niño Watch has been issued to cover this potential.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2023

    La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during March. For Aotearoa New Zealand, this transition is expected to result in more variable air flow, temperature, and rainfall patterns during autumn.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook February - April 2023

    La Niña continued during January, but it has gradually weakened. It will continue to affect Aotearoa New Zealand’s atmospheric patterns in coming months, even as neutral conditions are likely reached in early autumn.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook January 2023 - March 2023

    La Niña continued during December and a marine heatwave intensified in Aotearoa New Zealand’s coastal waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 1.1˚C to 1.8˚C above average. La Niña is most likely to ease to neutral by early autumn.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook December 2022 - February 2023

    Summer temperatures are about equally likely to be near average or above average in the east of both islands, very likely to be above average in the north of the North Island and the west of both islands, and most likely to be above average in the north of the South Island
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook November 2022 - January 2023

    Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the north of the North Island and the west of both islands. Above average warmth and periodic humidity is expected from November, a change from the relatively cooler conditions experienced during October.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook October - December 2022

    Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the North Island and north and west of the South Island, and most likely to be warmer than average in the east of the South Island.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2022

    La Niña, which restrengthened during August, is expected to be an important climate driver for Aotearoa New Zealand during spring.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook August - October 2022

    Around New Zealand, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) ranged from 0.5˚C to 1.3˚C above average during July, a decrease compared to June. SSTs are forecast to remain above average into spring, which will have an upward influence on air temperatures.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook July - September 2022

    Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than average across all regions of Aotearoa New Zealand. While cold snaps and frosts will occur, their duration and/or frequency may be reduced due to a lack of southerly air flows.
  • (no image provided)

    Seasonal climate outlook June - August 2022

    Winter temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across Aotearoa New Zealand. This owes to an expected lack of southerly quarter winds, warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and a continuation of La Niña for at least part of the season.