Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.
Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.
Related information:
- Sea Surface Temperature Update
- Forecasting climate [PDF 76.7 KB]
- More on probabilities [PDF 11.8 KB]
- Southern Annular Mode
- El Niño Southern Oscillation
- What's average in my region?
Explore our Drought Forecasting Dashboard below, request data via a web form or pop out to full screen
Issues
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Seasonal climate outlook October - December 2022
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the North Island and north and west of the South Island, and most likely to be warmer than average in the east of the South Island. -
Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2022
La Niña, which restrengthened during August, is expected to be an important climate driver for Aotearoa New Zealand during spring. -
Seasonal climate outlook August - October 2022
Around New Zealand, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) ranged from 0.5˚C to 1.3˚C above average during July, a decrease compared to June. SSTs are forecast to remain above average into spring, which will have an upward influence on air temperatures. -
Seasonal climate outlook July - September 2022
Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than average across all regions of Aotearoa New Zealand. While cold snaps and frosts will occur, their duration and/or frequency may be reduced due to a lack of southerly air flows. -
Seasonal climate outlook June - August 2022
Winter temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across Aotearoa New Zealand. This owes to an expected lack of southerly quarter winds, warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and a continuation of La Niña for at least part of the season. -
Seasonal climate outlook May - July 2022
The atmospheric imprint of La Niña continues to be strong; the Southern Oscillation Index during April is tracking to become the 3rd-highest April value on record since at least 1876. -
Seasonal climate outlook April - June 2022
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the north and west of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average elsewhere. -
Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2022
March is expected to feature spells of higher than normal pressure in Aotearoa New Zealand, especially during the first half of the month, with drier than normal conditions favoured in the North Island in particular. -
Seasonal climate outlook February 2022 - April 2022
La Niña conditions peaked in the equatorial Pacific during January, with a 75% chance for its continuation during the next three months. -
Seasonal climate outlook January 2022 - March 2022
La Niña conditions strengthened in the equatorial Pacific during December. It is expected to continue to be a key climate driver for Aotearoa New Zealand over the next three months, with an 80% chance for its continuation. -
Seasonal climate outlook December 2021 - February 2022
Summer temperatures are very likely to be above average across the country. Warm overnight temperatures and extended periods of high humidity are likely. -
Seasonal climate outlook November 2021 - January 2022
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across Aotearoa New Zealand with a period of particularly warm conditions from around the second week of November. -
Seasonal climate outlook October - December 2021
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across New Zealand. More northeasterly winds are expected to cause periods of warmth and humidity, such as in early October. -
Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2021
Spring rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the east of the North Island, near normal in the west of the South Island, and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all remaining regions across Aotearoa New Zealand. -
Seasonal climate outlook August - October 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in all regions of the country. More northwesterly air flows will likely cause spells of unseasonably warm temperatures in the north and east of both islands in particular. -
Seasonal climate outlook July - September 2021
NZ’s weather patterns are expected to feature substantial week-to-week variability over the coming months, owing to an ENSO neutral state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. -
Seasonal climate outlook June - August 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the west and east of the South Island and about equally likely to be above average or near average in all other regions. While cold spells and frosts will occur, as is typical during winter, they may be infrequent. -
Seasonal climate outlook May - July 2021
Temperatures are very unlikely to be colder than average for the three months as a whole. Above average or near average temperatures are favoured for all regions except the east of the South Island, where above average temperatures are most likely. -
Seasonal climate outlook April - June 2021
For April-June, air pressure is expected to be lower than normal to the northwest and higher than normal to the east of the country. Although air flows will be mixed, slightly more easterly quarter winds are favoured for the three month period as a whole. -
Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2021
During autumn, New Zealand’s climate patterns are expected to become more variable as the impact from a non-traditional central Pacific La Niña starts to ease. -
Seasonal climate outlook February - April 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average in all other regions. -
Seasonal climate outlook January – March 2021
Sub-tropical air flows may fuel areas of localised, heavy rainfall that can cause flooding, similar to what was in experienced in parts of the country during late December and early January. -
Seasonal climate outlook December 2020 - February 2021
Consistent with moderate La Niña conditions, December 2020 – February 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast of the South Island and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies. -
Seasonal climate outlook November - January 2021
November 2020 – January 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies, a signature of La Niña.