Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.

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Issues

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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2014

    May–July temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be average for the west of the South Island, above average (50% chance) for the east of the North Island, and average or above average (40-45%) for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as autumn advances into winter.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2014

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in March 2014. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the next three months (April – June 2014).
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2014

    During March–May 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north of the country, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zealand.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: February 2014 - April 2014

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in January 2013.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: January 2014 - March 2014

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in December 2013.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2013 - February 2014

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in November 2013.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2013 - January 2014

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2013

    Near or above average temperatures are expected to continue across the country for the coming three months.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2013

    After a very warm winter, the coming spring is likely to have near or above average temperatures across the country.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2013

    A warm early spring on the cards
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2013

    Mild conditions likely to continue over late winter.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2013

    Mild winter very likely.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2013

    Mild early winter on the cards.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2013

    Mild conditions for late autumn.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2013

    Mild autumn on the cards.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2013

    Return to near normal over the coming season.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2013

    Wetter in west and drier in east likely to continue.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2012 - February 2013

    Normal to dry summer for the north & east of North Island.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2012 - January 2013

    Normal to dry early summer for North Island, Nelson and Marlborough.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2012

    Borderline or weak El Niño forecast for late spring
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2012

    Weak El Niño forecast for spring and summer.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2012

    On the brink of El Niño.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2012

    Drier late winter likely for some.
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    Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2012

    Drier winter likely for some.