Island Climate Update 174 - March 2015

Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific reflect weak El Niño conditions in February 2015.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between weak and neutral El Niño states in February 2015. Equatorial SSTs are warmer than normal in the central and western Pacific, and the anomalies in the eastern Pacific remain weak.

During the March to May 2015 period, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to be positioned close to normal in the western Pacific and south of normal in the eastern Pacific.

The dynamical model forecasts indicate that the central equatorial Pacific is likely to experience above normal rainfall in March – May 2015. In contrast, regions in the eastern Pacific are expected to experience reduced rainfall.

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data