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Introduction

Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific reflect weak El Niño conditions in February 2015.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific reflect weak El Niño conditions in February 2015.
  • Regional atmospheric patterns indicate neutral to weak El Niño conditions.
  • Probability for El Niño during March – May 2015 is about 45%.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned south of normal in the eastern Pacific for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the northern Cook Islands and Papua New Guinea.
  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati. Near normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, Samoa, Tokelau, Wallis & Futuna, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Austral Islands, the southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands.
  • Above normal SSTs are forecast for eastern and western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Tokelau and Tuvalu.
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Have a question about the South Pacific climate?  Ask an expert: a.lorrey@niwa.co.nz