Island Climate Update 86 - November 2007

World Meteorological Organisation Expert Team meeting on ‘El Niño and La Niña’, Calverton, USA, August 13–15 2007
El Niño conditions.
La Niña conditions.
Luc Maitrepierre, New Caledonia
This WMO’s Expert Team (ET) was formed in November 2005 during the fourteenth session of the Commission of Climatology (CCl), with Luc Maitrepierre as its leader. The first ET meeting was held in Calverton, USA, August 13-15 2007.
This followed the report of the previous ET.

Climate developments in October 2007
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for October 2007. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active,extending from Papua New Guinea toward Fiji and further east toward central French Polynesia. It also remained more southwest than normal for the time of year. An elongated region of suppressed convection continued to persist along the equator affecting Nauru, Western and Eastern Kiribati,and the region further east (north of the Equator) to the coast of South America.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 86 – November 2007
October’s climate
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Papua New Guinea to central French Polynesia; active and furthersouthwest than normal
Suppressed convection over Nauru, Western and Eastern Kiribati, and further east
High rainfall in parts of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa, Niue, and central French Polynesia
Low rainfall over much of Kiribati, and t

Tropical rainfall outlook: November 2007 to January 2008
Rainfall outlook map for November 2007 to January 2008. (Click for enlargement)
A La Niña-like pattern continues, producing a large area of suppressed convection along the equator from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu. Below average rainfall is also likely in Tokelau,the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas.
Enhanced convection is likely along a SPCZ displaced southwest of its normal position, from Papua New Guinea to Tonga, then the Society and Austral Islands of French Polynesia.

Tropical Pacific rainfall - October 2007
Territory and station name
October 2007 rainfall
total (mm)
October 2007 percent
of average
Australia
Cairns Airport
30.4
74
Townsville Airport
13.6
52
Brisbane Airport
46.2
49
Sydney Airport
12.0
15
Cook Islands
Penrhyn
99.2
57
Rarotonga Airport
44.0
43
Rarotonga EWS
31.2
31
Fiji
Rotuma
356.0
105
Udu Point
347.7
211
Nadi Airport
86.0
84
Nausori
467.3
228
Ono-I-Lau
225.5
262
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona
61.6
63
Bora Bora
307.6
305
Tahiti – Faa’a
221.6
217
Tuamotu, Takaroa
467.6

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi