09 November 2007
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 86 – November 2007
October’s climate
- South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Papua New Guinea to central French Polynesia; active and furthersouthwest than normal
- Suppressed convection over Nauru, Western and Eastern Kiribati, and further east
- High rainfall in parts of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa, Niue, and central French Polynesia
- Low rainfall over much of Kiribati, and the Northern Cook Islands; soil moisture deficit persists in the Southern Cook Islands
- Record October warmth in parts of Fiji, Tonga, and the Southern Cook Islands
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts
- La Niña is now well established in the central and easternequatorial Pacific, persisting through to early 2008 then easing
- Suppressed convection and below average rainfall are expectedalong the equatorial Pacific from Western to Eastern Kiribati,including Tuvalu and the Northern Cooks
- Enhanced convection along a southwest displaced SPCZ withabove average rainfall likely from Vanuatu to Tonga then tosouthern French Polynesia
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