Island Climate Update 185 - February 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

10 February 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 185 (PDF 1.1 MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 350 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño has probably reached its peak towards the end of 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Strong El Niño conditions continued during January 2016.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast February to April 2016

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: February to April 2016

    The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions for the February – April 2016 period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data