10 February 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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Strong El Niño conditions continued in January 2015.
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El Niño has probably reached its peak towards the end of 2015.
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El Niño is highly likely (96% chance) to continue over the coming season (February– April 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, northern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Niue, Fiji, southern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
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Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas and Tokelau.
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Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati abd the Marquesas.
