Island Climate Update 170 - November 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

11 November 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 170 (PDF 315 KB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 442 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introuction

    Borderline El Niño conditions persisted in the Pacific during October

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) rose slightly across the equatorial Pacific ocean, but there is still no gradient in the SST anomalies

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast November 2014 to January 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: November 2014 to January 2015

    The dynamical models forecasts indicate that the western equatorial Pacific as well as parts of the Maritime Continent are likely to experience normal or above-normal rainfall for the November 2014 - January 2015 season as a whole.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past three months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data