Island Climate Update 189 - June 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

23 June 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 189 (PDF 1.1MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 349 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño has ended. All the El Niño – Southern Oscillation indices have now returned to near neutral levels.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Ocean-Atmosphere conditions in the Tropical Pacific have now returned to a near normal state after a rapid demise of the El Niño event, which peaked in late 2015.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast: June to August 2016

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: June to August 2016

    El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are most likely (54% chance) over the next three months period (June – August 2016) but a transition to La Niña is possible (43% chance).

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data