Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.
Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.
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Issues
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Seasonal Climate Outlook December 2025 - February 2026
Moderate La Niña conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific -
Seasonal Climate Outlook November 2025 - January 2026
Forecasts from Earth Science New Zealand’s (ESNZ) Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) indicate a high probability (about 80%) of La Niña conditions prevailing during the November 2025 –January 2026 period -
Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2025
ENSO-neutral (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) conditions remain present in the tropical Pacific, but a La Niña Watch is in effect. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook September - November 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions remain present in the tropical Pacific, but La Niña-like patterns became more established in August 2025. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook August - October 2025
Atmospheric circulation over the next three-month period is expected to be dominated by northeasterly to easterly air flow anomalies. 
Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2025
For New Zealand, lower than normal atmospheric pressure is expected northwest of the country.-
Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2025
Neutral El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions remain present in the tropical Pacific. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook May -July 2025
Seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions, with particularly warm overnight temperatures driving this trend. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook April - June 2025
In March 2025, the oceanic markers of La Niña weakened significantly, with most now falling within the ENSO-neutral range. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook March - May 2025
Overall, a mix of anticyclonic flows and easterly quarter flows are expected over New Zealand over the autumn season. -
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Seasonal Climate Outlook January - March 2025
A La Niña Watch remains in effect. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook December 2024 - February 2025
Seasonal Climate Outlook December 2024 - February 2025 -
Seasonal Climate Outlook November - January 2025
A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with a little over 50% chance that La Niña officially develops by the end of the year. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2024
A La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 60-70% chance that an event officially develops by December. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook September - November 2024
Seasonal Climate Outlook for September - November 2024 -
Seasonal Climate Outlook August - October 2024
La Niña-like atmospheric patterns continued during July and a La Niña Watch continues. Oceanic La Niña may develop during spring (60% chance) -
Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2024
Following La Niña-like atmospheric patterns near New Zealand during June, a La Niña Watch continues. There’s a 60-70% chance that La Niña will develop during spring. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2024
El Niño, which was active since September 2023, has ended and given way to ENSO neutral conditions, which are expected to last through winter. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook May - July 2024
El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by the end of May. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook April - June 2024
El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by June. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook March - May 2024
El Niño is expected to ease to ENSO neutral by the end of autumn. The autumn season is favoured to have more northwesterly winds than normal around Aotearoa/New Zealand. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook February - April 2024
El Niño continued during January and has around a 100% chance of persisting through April. -
Seasonal Climate Outlook January - March 2024
El Niño continued during December and has around a 100% chance of persisting through to March 2024.