02 February 2011
Introduction to Island Climate Update 123 - December 2010
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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La Niña exists in the equatorial Pacific region. Most dynamical and statistical climate models project continuation of La Niña through Austral summer. The event is expected to continue into autumn 2011, with the expecation that neutral conditions will be achieved by winter.
Tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season
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Normal or above normal tropical cyclone occurrence is expected, with increased activity to the west of Fiji in the Coral Sea and North Tasman region. Risk is elevated for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and New Zealand. Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands and the Tuamotu Archipelago.
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The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands.
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Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Papua New Guinea, New Caledoina, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands are expected to have above normal SSTs.
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