22 May 2009
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 104 – May 2009
April’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) shifted in April, with only the eastern end positioned southwest of normal.
- Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator extending east through Nauru and Eastern Kiribati.
- Mostly well above normal rainfall for Tuvalu and Niue.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- La Niña-like conditions have existed in the tropical Pacific in previous months, but most climate models project ENSO neutral conditions for autumn and winter 2009.
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, and Papua New Guinea.
- SST anomalies are expected to weaken in the region. Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast near the Tuamotu Archipelago.
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