Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Sea surface temperatures anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific are maximum around the international Dateline and reflect weak El Niño conditions in March 2015.
• Regional atmospheric patterns are also consistent with weak El Niño conditions.
• Probability for El Niño during April – June 2015 is about 60 %.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to climatology for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, the Marquesas, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Society Islands, the northern Cook Islands, the southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Niue, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and the Tuamotu archipelago.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for western Kiribati and Tuvalu. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, the Austral Islands and Samoa.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for eastern and western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Tokelau and Tuvalu.