On 1 July 2025, NIWA merged with GNS Science to become Earth Sciences New Zealand.

Introduction

Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific were close to El Niño thresholds in January 2015.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific were close to El Niño thresholds in January 2015.
  • Regional atmospheric patterns are inconsistent with El Niño.
  • Probability for El Niño during February – April 2015 is about 60 %.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, the Marquesas, New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
  • Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, Samoa, Tokelau, Tuvalu, the Austral Islands and the Society Islands.
  • Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati , eastern Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Normal or below normal SSTs are forecast for Pitcairn Island.
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Have a question about the South Pacific climate?  Ask an expert: a.lorrey@niwa.co.nz