02 February 2011
Introduction to Island Climate Update 124 - January 2011
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
-
A strong La Niña exists in the equatorial Pacific region. Most dynamical and statistical climate models project continuation of the event through Austral summer and into autumn 2011, with the expecation that neutral conditions will be achieved by winter.
Tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season
-
To date, one TC has occurred in the SW Pacific region this season. Normal or above normal tropical cyclone occurrence is expected, with increased activity to the west of Fiji in the Coral Sea and North Tasman region. Risk is elevated for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and New Zealand.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
-
Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands and the Tuamotu Archipelago.
-
The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, and Tonga.
-
Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Papua New Guinea, New Caledoina and the Austral Islands are expected to have above normal SSTs
A complete copy of The Island Climate Update is available as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file. This does not contain any extra information over that obtained by clicking on the individual items above.
To view the PDF file, you'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader, which you can download free from Adobe