New Zealand Climate Update 205 - July 2016

During the month of June 2016, air pressure was higher than normal over and to the east of New Zealand while lower than normal pressures existed to the south-west of the country. This pressure set up led to a prevalence of winds from a northerly direction.

The latest remnants of the strong El Niño which peaked late in 2015 have now vanished in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Pacific is ENSO-neutral. Ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific are now near or slightly below normal, and recent developments in the ocean – atmosphere system are pointing to a possible transition to La Niña over the coming three months.

July – September 2016 temperatures are very likely (60-70% chance) to be above average in all regions of the country. Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur from time to time.

For April – June 2016, above normal pressure was forecast to the north of New Zealand. This circulation pattern was likely to be accompanied by weak anomalous westerly wind flow.