July – September 2016 temperatures are very likely (60-70% chance) to be above average in all regions of the country. Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur from time to time.
July – September 2016 seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for all regions of New Zealand. Warmer sea surface temperatures around the country will remain a major driving force for the New Zealand’s climate over the coming season. Consequently, there remains an elevated risk for significant rainfall events and severe storms.
July – September 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) range in the north and west of both Islands. In the east of the North Island, soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (40% chance) and river flows are equally likely (35% chance) to be near or below normal. In the east of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be in the below normal (40% chance) or normal range (35% chance), while below normal river flows are most likely (50% chance).
