ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
Western Pacific warmer than usual
Average SSTs in NINO4
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state. Equatorial SSTs have eased further, but are slightly higher than normal, especially in the west. The monthly SOI continues to fluctuate, associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The mean SOI for February was +0.7, and +0.1 for December to February. The NINO3 SST anomaly for February was about +0.2°C and NINO4 about +0.6°C (December to February are +0.5°C and +0.8°C, respectively). The trade winds have been near normal apart from the MJO-related variability in the western Pacific.
Most of the global climate models indicate neutral conditions during the 2004 autumn. Recent oceanic Kelvin wave activity and the general lack of predictability at this time of the year make longer-range ENSO outlooks difficult to predict.
Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for February 2004
Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for February 2004
