Hotspot Watch 6 November 2025

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

In the North Island, very little rainfall occurred over the last seven days, with all areas recording 10 mm or less. Soil moisture levels decreased across the entire North Island, with the greatest decrease across the Far North, parts of the Waikato and the Bay of Plenty. The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of year, are found around Central and Southern Hawke’s Bay, the east coast of the Manawatū, and coastal Wairarapa. The wettest soils for this time of the year are generally found in the Auckland region and the west coast of lower Northland.

A hotspot has developed in Hawke’s Bay near Hastings.

As of 3 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map shows abnormally dry conditions are currently found in Hawke’s Bay. In the South Island, 50 to 100 mm of rain fell over the last seven days across a small area of the West Coast above Hokitika. Coastal and the west of Southland and the remaining areas of the West Coast generally received 10 to 30 mm of rain. Elsewhere, the South Island recorded less than 10 mm of rain over the last seven days, while large portions of Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson and northern Tasman received no rainfall. Soil moisture levels decreased or remained the same for the entire South Island, with the largest decrease for the West Coast, Tasman, and Nelson districts. The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Canterbury and in Marlborough around Blenheim, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are generally found in interior Otago.

No hotspots are currently located in the South Island. However, a hotspot may develop in the Marlborough district.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

The week ahead:

For the North Island, low pressure will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the central and the north of the North Island from 7 to 10 November, with a cold front moving in 10 November enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity for all of the North Island. The front clears to high pressure on 10 to 11 November, followed by another southward moving low pressure 12 to 13 November, bringing more thunderstorms.

Weekly rainfall total will be 30 to 50 mm of rain (with isolated higher amounts) for the central and the north of the North Island, heaviest in Northland, Auckland, the Waikato, and the Bay of Plenty. Elsewhere, expect 10 to 30 mm of rain, with portions of the east coast recording less than 10 mm of rain.Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture may increase slightly for the central and the top of the North Island. Elsewhere, soil moisture levels will remain the same except in Hawke’s Bay and the Wairarapa, where soil moisture will likely decrease slightly.

For the South Island, high pressure brings mainly dry weather 7 to 8 November, with slow moving front bringing rain 9 to 11 November, heaviest in the south and west. 12 November brings a short period of high pressure and mainly dry weather, followed by low pressure next Thursday (13 November).

Weekly rainfall total will be 50 to 100 mm for the lower West Coast, with 30 to 50 mm for the remainder of the West Coast. Weekly rainfall total will be 10 to 30 mm for Southland, Otago, Tasman, and Nelson districts. Elsewhere, less than 10 mm of rain will fall, with many parts of the east coast of the South Island recording little to no rain. Due to expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture will remain the same or decrease slightly across all of the South Island.

Long-term outlook (through early-December):

• The drier (25th percentile) rainfall scenario shows below normal rainfall across all of New Zealand, with very dry conditions for the lower North Island and east of the South Island.
• The middle (50th percentile) rainfall scenario shows a dry signal for Canterbury, the southeast of the South Island, and the lower North Island.
• The upper (75th percentile) rainfall scenario shows a wet signal for the east and north of the North Island, and the very top of the South Island and portions of Otago, with a very wet signal in portions of Northland and the Bay of Plenty.
  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook

Background:

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent.

Soil moisture deficit: the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly: the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of
year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are "severely drier than normal" which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.